Dynegy Bankruptcy examiner to be appointed

The motion for an examiner was made by U.S. Bank NA, as indenture trustee for the Roseton and Danskammer SLOB bonds. In response, Judge Cecila G. Morris, the bankruptcy judge for the Dynegy case has ordered the appointment of an independent examiner for the bankruptcy of Dynegy Holdings. The examiner will study a series of transactions including a restructuring that took place a few months before the bankruptcy filing. As a result of this restructuring, the valuable coal and natural gas assets were re-organized into bankruptcy remote entities while the HoldCo and Dynegy Northeast were forced to file for bankruptcy.
Bankruptcy examiners are appointed to study allegations of fraud, dishonesty and mismanagement. In this particular case, the charge of fraudulent conveyance is the most pertinent in my opinion. In fact, there is a precedent regarding fraudulent conveyance: in mid-2010, the Tribune Company’s exit from bankruptcy collapsed after a bankruptcy examiner identified fraudulent conveyance in the LBO of Tribune Company. However, this case is not as straight forward: Would Dynegy Holdings have survived without the restructuring and have market conditions worsened since the restructuring? Please email me if you are interested in discussing further.
Discalimer: I have no position in Dynegy and do not plan to initiate one in the next 48 hours.

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Which part of the Dynegy capital structure to play in, post filing

As per my recovery estimates below, I believe the senior unsecureds offer the best risk/ return reward at this time.  The unsecureds are trading below my worse case valuation and offer significant upside from these levels.

The main variables to these recovery estimates are: a)Natural gas prices; b) Bankruptcy Judge’s interpretation of the use of Bankruptcy Code 502(b)(6) to limit the claims arising from the rejection of the Roseton and Danskammer leases; and c) How long the bankruptcy process takes.

dyn recovery